 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
Sains Malaysiana 43(1)(2014):
9–19
Decreased Sensitivity of Tree Growth to Temperature in Southeast China after the 1976/'77 Regime Shift in Pacific
Climate (Penurunan Kepekaan Pertumbuhan Pokok terhadap Suhu di China Tenggara
selepas Peralihan Rejim 1976/'77 dalam Iklim Pasifik)
XIAOCHUN WANG123*, ZONGSHAN
LI4& KEPING
MA1
1State
Key Laboratory of Vegetation and Environmental Change, Institute
of Botany, Chinese
Academy of Sciences, 20 Nanxincun, Xiangshan, Beijing, 100093 China
2Center for Ecological Research, Northeast Forestry University, 26 Hexing Road, Harbin 150040 China
3DendroLab, Department of Geography, University of Nevada, Reno, Nevada, USA
4State
Key Laboratory of Urban and Regional Ecology, Research Center for
Eco-Environmental Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing
100085, China
Received:
6 December 2012/Accepted: 20 March 2013
ABSTRACT
The climatic regime shift that occurred in the North Pacific Basin
during 1976/'77 have been linked to a decadal mode of climate variability,
which long-term behavior could be reconstructed from tree-ring records.
We analyzed radial growth patterns of five subtropical tree species
in Southeast China in relation to air and sea surface temperature,
the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO)
and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) indices 25 years before and after 1977.
In 1953-1977, tree-ring chronologies showed higher correlations
with air temperature than in 1978-2002, so that their time-series
graphs showed divergence after 1977. The first principal component
of the five tree-ring chronologies was significantly correlated
with ENSO and PDO indices in 1978-2002,
while it had no significant correlations with these variables during
1953-1977. Correlation maps of PC1, PDO and ENSO indices with surface air temperature showed
different patterns before and after 1977. Based on these comparisons,
altered sensitivity of tree growth to temperature in recent decades
could depend on basin-wide climatic shift in the North Pacific,
which either changed the effects of local climatic factors on tree
growth or modified the relationships between local and regional
climate.
Keywords: ENSO; PDO; temperature reconstruction; tree ring; 1976/77
regime shift
ABSTRAK
Peralihan rejim iklim yang berlaku di Lembangan Pasifik Utara semasa
1976/'77 telah dihubung kait dengan mod dekad kepelbagaian iklim,
dengan kelakuan jangka masa panjangnya dapat dibina semula daripada
rekod cecincin pokok. Kami menganalisis corak pertumbuhan cecincin
spesies pokok subtropika di China Tenggara terhadap suhu udara dan
permukaan laut, indeks Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) dan indeks El Niño-Southern Oscillation
(ENSO)
selama 25 tahun sebelum dan selepas 1977. Pada 1953-1977, kronologi
cecincin pokok menunjukkan korelasi tinggi terhadap suhu udara berbanding
tempoh 1978-2002, oleh itu graf masa-siri menunjukkan percapahan
selepas 1977. Prinsip komponen pertama bagi lima kronologi cecincin
pokok didapati berkorelasi secara signifikan terhadap indeks ENSO dan indeks PDO pada 1978-2002. Namun,
ia tidak menunjukkan korelasi secara signifikan terhadap pemboleh
ubah ini bagi tempoh 1953-1977. Peta korelasi bagi indeks PC1, PDO dan ENSO terhadap suhu permukaan
udara menunjukkan corak yang berlainan sebelum dan selepas 1997.
Berdasarkan perbandingan ini, sensitiviti terubah pertumbuhan pokok
terhadap suhu dalam dekad kebelakangan ini mungkin bergantung kepada
peralihan iklim keseluruhan lembangan di Pasifik Utara dan ia telah
mengubah kesan faktor iklim tempatan terhadap pertumbuhan pokok
atau mengubahsuai hubungan antara iklim tempatan dan iklim serantau.
REFERENCES
Alheit, J., Mollmann, C., Dutz, J., Kornilovs, G., Loewe,
P., Mohrholz, V. & Wasmund, N. 2005. Synchronous ecological regime shifts
in the central Baltic and the North Sea in the late 1980s. ICES Journal of
Marine Science 62: 1205-1215.
Anchukaitis, K.J., Evans, M.N., Kaplan, A., Vaganov, E.A.,
Hughes, M.K., Grissino-Mayer, H. D. & Cane, M.A. 2006. Forward modeling of
regional scale tree-ring patterns in the southeastern United States and the
recent influence of summer drought. Geophysical Research Letters 33:
L04705.
Andreu, L., Gutierrez, E., Macias, M., Ribas, M., Bosch, O.
& Camarero, J.J. 2007. Climate increases regional tree-growth variability
in Iberian pine forests. Global Change Biology 13: 804-815.
Barber, V.A., Juday, G.P. & Finney, B.P. 2000. Reduced
growth of Alaskan white spruce in the twentieth century from
temperature-induced drought stress. Nature 405: 668-673.
Biondi, F., Gershunov, A. & Cayan, D.R. 2001. North
Pacific decadal climate variability since 1661. Journal of Climate 14:
5-10.
Biondi, F. & Waikul, K. 2004. DENDROCLIM2002: AC++
program for statistical calibration of climate signals in tree-ring
chronologies. Computers & Geosciences 30: 303-311.
Biondi, F. & Qeandan, F. 2008. A theory-driven approach
to tree-ring standardization: Defining the biological trend from expected basal
area increment. Tree-Ring Research 64(2): 81-96.
Bräuning, A. & Mantwill, B. 2004. Increase of Indian
summer monsoon rainfall on the Tibetan plateau recorded by tree rings. Geophysical
Research Letters 31: L24205.
Briffa, K.R., Schweingruber, F.H., Jones, P.D., Osborn,
T.J., Shiyatov, S.G. & Vaganov, E.A. 1998. Reduced sensitivity of recent
tree-growth to temperature at high northern latitudes. Nature 391:
678-682.
Briffa, K.R., Osborna, T.J. & Schweingruber, F.H. 2004.
Large-scale temperature inferences from tree rings: A review. Global and
Planetary Change 40: 11-26.
Buckley, B.M., Cook, B.I., Bhattacharyya, A., Dukpa, D.
& Chaudhary, V. 2005. Global surface temperature signals in pine ring-width chronologies from southern
monsoon Asia. Geophysical Research Letters 32 (L20704).
Büntgen, U., Esper, J., Frank, D.C., Nicolussi, K. &
Schmidhalter, M. 2005. A 1052-year tree-ring proxy for Alpine summer
temperatures. Climate Dynamics 25: 141-153.
Büntgen, U., Frank, D.C., Schmidhalter, M., Neuwirth, B.,
Seifert, M. & Esper, J. 2006. Growth/climate response shift in a long
subalpine spruce chronology. Trees 20: 99-110.
Carrer, M. & Urbinati, C. 2006. Long-term change in the
sensitivity of tree-ring growth to climate forcing in Larix decidua. New
Phytologist 170: 861-872.
Carrer, M., Nola, P., Eduard, J.L., Motta, R. &
Urbinati, C. 2007. Regional variability of climate-growth relationships in Pinus
cembra high elevation forests in the Alps. Journal of Ecology 95:
1072-1083.
Case, M.J. & Peterson, D.L. 2007. Growth-climate
relations of Lodgepole pine in the north Cascades National Park, Washington. Northwest
Science 81(1): 62-75.
Caso, M., lez-Abraham, C.G. & Ezcurra, E. 2007.
Divergent ecological effects of oceanographic anomalies on terrestrial
ecosystems of the Mexican Pacific coast. Proceedings of the National Academy
of Sciences, USA 104(25): 10530-10535.
Chang, C.P., Zhang, Y. & Li, T. 2000. Interannual and
interdecadal variations of the East Asian summer monsoon and tropical Pacific
SSTs. Part I: Roles of the subtropical ridge. Journal of Climate 13:
4310-4325.
Charles, C.D., Hunter, D.E. & Fairbanks, R.G. 1997.
Interaction between the ENSO and the Asian Monsoon in a coral record of
tropical climate. Science 277: 925-928.
Cook, E.R. & Holmes, R.L. 1986. Users manual for
computer program ARSTAN, In Tree-ring Chronologies of Western North America:
California, Eastern Oregon a Northern Great Basin. Chronology Series VI., edited
by Holmes, R.L., Adams, R. & Fritts, H. Tucson: Arizona University Press.
pp. 50-56.
Daniels, L.D. & Veblen, T.T. 2004. Spatiotemporal
influences of climate on altitudinal treeline in northern Patagonia. Ecology 85(5): 1284-1296.
D'Arrigo, R., Villalba, R. & Wiles, G. 2001. Tree-ring
estimates of Pacific decadal climate variability. Climate Dynamics
18: 219-224. D'Arrigo, R., Mashig, E., Frank, D., Wilson, R. & Jacoby,
G. 2005. Temperature variability over the past millennium inferred
from Northwestern Alaska tree rings. Climate Dynamics 24:
227-236. D'Arrigo, R., Wilson, R., Deser, C., Wiles, G., Cook, E., Villalba,
R., Tudhope, A., Cole, J. & Linsley, B. 2005. Tropical-north
Pacific climate linkages over the past four centuries. Journal
of Climate 18: 5253-5265. D'Arrigo, R. & Wilson, R. 2006. On the Asian expression
of the PDO. International Journal of Climatology 26: 1607-1617.
D'Arrigo, R., Wilson, R., Liepert, B. & Cherubini, P. 2008.
On the 'Divergence Problem' in northern forests: A review of the
tree-ring evidence and possible causes. Global and Planetary
Change 60: 289-305. Davi, N.K., Jacoby, G.C. & Wilesb, G.C. 2003. Boreal
temperature variability inferred from maximum latewood density and tree-ring
width data, Wrangell Mountain region, Alaska. Quaternary Research 60:
252-262.
Deser, C., Phillips, A. & Hurrel, J. 2004. Pacific
interdecadal climate variability: Linkages between the tropics and North
Pacific during boreal winter since 1900. Journal of Climate 17:
3109-3124.
Du, Y., Mi, X., Liu, X., Chen, L. & Ma, K. 2009. Seed
dispersal phenology and dispersal syndromes in a subtropical broad-leaved
forest of China. Forest Ecology and Management 258: 1147-1152.
Frank, D., Wilson, R. & Esper, J. 2005. Synchronous
variability changes in Alpine temperature and tree-ring data over the past two
centuries. Boreas 34: 498-505.
Frauenfeld, O.W., Davis, R.E. & Mann, M.E. 2005. A
distinctly interdecadal signal of Pacific ocean-atmosphere interaction. Journal
of Climate 18: 1709-1718.
Fritts, H.C. 1976. Tree Rings and Climate. New York:
Academic Press.
Gong, D.Y. & Ho, C.H. 2002. Shift in the summer rainfall
over the Yangtze River valley in the late 1970s. Geophysical Research
Letters 29: 1436.
Hoerling, M. & Kumar, A. 2003. The perfect ocean for
drought. Science 299: 691-694.
Holmes, R.L. 1983. Computer-assisted quality control in
tree-ring dating and measurement. Tree-Ring Bulletin 43: 69-75.
Hong, B., Lin, Q. & Hong, Y. 2006. Interconnections
between the Asian monsoon, ENSO, and high northern latitude climate during the
Holocene. Chinese Science Bulletin 51(18): 2169-2177.
Hu, Z.Z. 1997. Interdecadal variability of summer climate
over East Asia and its association with 500 hPa height and global sea surface
temperature. Journal Geophysical Research 102: 19403-19412.
Kalnay, E., Kanamitsu, M., Kistler, R., Collins, W., Deaven,
D., Gandin, L., Iredell, M., Saha, S., White, G., Woollen, J., Zhu, Y.,
Leetmaa, A., Reynolds, R., Chelliah, M., Ebisuzaki, W., Higgins, W., Janowiak,
J., Mo, K.C., Ropelewski, C., Wang, J., Jenne, R. & Joseph, D. 1996. The
NCEP/NCAR 40-year reanalysis project. Bulletin of the American
Meteorological Society 77: 437-470.
Kinter III, J.L., Miyakoda, K. & Yang, S. 2002. Recent
change in the connection from the Asian monsoon to ENSO. Journal of Climate 15:
1203-1215.
Krishnamurthy, V. & Goswami, B.N. 2000. Indian monsoon-
ENSO relationship on interdecadal timescale. Journal of Climate 13:
579-595.
Kumar, K.K., Rajagopalan, B. & Cane, M.A. 1999. On the
weakening relationship between Indian monsoon and ENSO. Science 284:
2156-2159.
Legendre, P. & Legendre, L. 1998. Numerical Ecology.
Amsterdam: Elsevier Science BV.
Lloyd, A.H. & Fastie, C.L. 2002. Spatial and temporal
variability in the growth and climate response of treeline trees in Alaska. Climatic
Change 52(4): 481-509.
Lo, T.T. & Hsu, H.H. 2008. The early 1950s regime shift
in temperature in Taiwan and East Asia. Climate Dynamics 31: 449-461.
López, B.C., Rodriguez, R., Gracia, C.A. & Sabate, S.
2006. Climatic signals in growth and its relation to ENSO events of two Prosopis species following a latitudinal gradient in South America. Global Change
Biology 12: 897-906.
Mantua, N.J., Hare, S.R., Zhang, Y., Wallace, J.M. &
Francis, R.C. 1997. A pacific interdecadal climate oscillation with impacts on
salmon production. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 78:
1069-1080.
Miller, A.J., Cayan, D.R., Barnett, T.P., Graham, N.E. &
Oberhuber, J.M. 1994. The 1976-77 climate shift of the Pacific ocean. Oceanography 7(1): 21-26.
Oberhuber, W., Kofler, W., Pfeifer, K., Seeber, A., Gruber,
A. & Wieser, G. 2008. Long-term changes in tree-ring–climate relationships
at Mt. Patscherkofel (Tyrol, Austria) since the mid-1980s. Trees 22(1):
31-40.
van
Oldenborgh, G.J., Drijfhout, S., van Ulden, A., Haarsma, R., Sterl, A., Severijns,
C., Hazeleger, W. & Dijkstra, H. 2009. Western Europe is warming much
faster than expected. Climate of the Past 5: 1-12.
Pillai,
P.A. & Mohankumar, K. 2009. Effect of late 1970's climate shift
on tropospheric biennial oscillation-role of local Indian Ocean
processes on Asian summer monsoon. International Journal of Climatology
30(4): 509-521. Rodionov,
S. & Overland, J.E. 2005. Application of a sequential regime shift
detection method to the Bering Sea ecosystem. ICES Journal of Marine Science 62: 328-332.
Schöngart,
J., Junk, W.J., Piedade, M.T.F., Ayres, J.M., Huttermann, A. & Worbes, M.
2004. Teleconnection between tree growth in the Amazonian floodplains and the
El Niño– Southern Oscillation effect. Global Change Biology 10:
683-692.
Singhrattna,
N., Rajagopalan, B., Kumar, K.K. & Clark, M. 2005a. Interannual and
interdecadal variability of Thailand summer monsoon. Journal of Climate 18:
1697-1708.
Singhrattna,
N., Rajagopalan, B., Clark, M. & Kumar, K.K. 2005b. Seasonal forecasting of
Thailand summer monsoon rainfall. International Journal of Climatology 25:
649-664.
Sun,
S. & Yin, M. 1999. Subtropical high anomalies over the western Pacific and
its relations to the Asian monsoon and SST anomaly. Advances Atmospheric
Sciences 16: 559-568.
Trenberth,
K.E. & Hoar, T.J. 1997. El Nino and climate change. Geophys. Res. Lett. 24:
3057-3060.
Tudhope,
A.W., Chilcott, C.P., McCulloch, M.T., Cook, E.R., Chappell, J., Ellam, R.M.,
Lea, D.W., Lough, J.M. & Shimmield, G.B. 2001. Variability in the El
Nino-Southern Oscilliation through a glacial-interglacial cycle. Science 291(5508):
1511-1517.
Vaganov,
E.A., Hughes, M.K., Kirdyanov, A.V., Schweingruber, F.H. & Silkin, P.P.
1999. Influence of snowfall and melt timing on tree growth in subarctic Eurasia. Nature 400: 149-151.
Villalba,
R. 2007. Tree-ring evidence for tropical-extratropical influences on climate
variability along the Andes in South America. PAGES News 15(2): 23-25.
Wang,
B., Wu, R. & Lau, K.M. 2001. Interannual variability of the Asian summer
monsoon: Contrasts between the Indian and the western north Pacific–east
Asian monsoons. Journal of Climate 14: 4073-4090.
Wilmking,
M., Juday, G.P., Barber, V.A. & Zald, H.S.J. 2004. Recent climate warming
forces contrasting growth responses of white spruce at treeline in Alaska
through temperature thresholds. Global Change Biology 10: 1724-1736.
Wilson,
R., D'Arrigo, R., Buckley, B., Buntgen, U., Esper, J., Frank, D.,
Luckman, B., Payette, S., Vose, R. & Youngblut, D. 2007. A matter
of divergence: Tracking recent warming at hemispheric scales using
tree data. Journal of Geophysical Research 112: D17103. Wilson,
R. & Elling, W. 2004. Temporal instability in tree-growth/climate response
in the lower Bavarian forest region: Implications for dendroclimatic
reconstruction. Trees 18: 19-28.
Wilson,
R. & Topham, J. 2004. Violins and climate. Theoretical and Applied
Climatology 77(1-2): 9-24.
Wu,
B. 2005. Weakening of Indian summer monsoon in recent decades. Advances
Atmospheric Sciences 22: 21-29.
Xu,
X., Yu, M., Hu, Z., Li, M. & Zhang, F. 2005. Structure and dynamics of Castanopsis
eyrei population in Gutian Mountain National Nature Reserve in Zhejiang,
east China. Acta Ecologica Sinica 25(3): 645-653.
Zhang,
R. 2001. Relations of water vapor transport from Indian monsoon with that over
East Asia and the summer rainfall in China. Advances Atmospheric Sciences 18:
1005-1017.
Zhang,
P., Cheng, H., Edwards, R.L., Chen, F., Wang, Y., Yang, X., Liu, J., Tan, M.,
Wang, X., Liu, J., An, C., Dai, Z., Zhou, J., Zhang, D., Jia, J., Jin, L. &
Johnson, K.R. 2008. A test of climate, sun, and culture relationships from an
1810-year Chinese cave record. Science 322: 940-942.
*Corresponding author; email: wangxc-cf@nefu.edu.cn
|
|||
|
