Sains Malaysiana 43(4)(2014): 629–636

Stochastic Lead Time Demand Estimation via Monte Carlo Simulation Technique

in Supply Chain Planning

(Anggaran Permintaan Masa Lopor Stokastik Melalui Teknik Simulasi Monte Carlo dalam Perancangan Rantaian Bekalan)

MOHAMAD MAHDAVI & MOJTABA MAHDAVI*

Department of Industrial Engineering, Islamic Azad University, Najafabad Branch, Isfahan Iran

Received: 12 May 2013/Accepted: 18 July 2013

ABSTRACT

This paper considers a Monte Carlo simulation based method for estimating cycle stocks (production lot-sizing stocks) in a typical batch production system, where a variety of products is scheduled for production at determined periods of time. Delivery time is defined as the maximum lead time and pre-assembly processing time of the product's raw materials in the method. The product's final assembly cycle and delivery time, which were obtained via the production schedule and supply chain simulation, respectively, were both considered to estimate the demand distribution of product based on total duration. Efficient random variates generators were applied to model the lead time of the supply chain's stages. In order to support the performance reliability of the proposed method, a real case study is conducted and numerically analyzed.

Keywords: Cycle stock; inventory; lead time demand; Monte Carlo; supply chain

ABSTRAK

Kertas ini mengambil kira kaedah simulasi Monte Carlo untuk menganggarkan kitaran stok (tempat keluaran-saiz stok) dalam sistem pengeluaran tipikal kelompok, dengan pelbagai produk dijadualkan untuk pengeluaran pada jangka masa yang ditetapkan. Dalam kaedah ini, masa penghantaran ditakrifkan sebagai masa lopor maksimum dan masa sebelum pemprosesan produk bahan mentah. Kitaran pemasangan akhir produk dan masa penghantaran masing-masing yang diperoleh melalui jadual pengeluaran dan simulasi rantaian bekalan diambil kira untuk menganggarkan pembahagian permintaan produk berdasarkan jumlah tempoh. Penjana pengubah rawak yang cekap digunakan sebagai model masa lopor peringkat rantaian bekalan. Dalam usaha untuk menyokong kebolehpercayaan prestasi kaedah penilaian yang dicadangkan, kajian kes sebenar dijalankan dan dianalisis secara berangka.

Kata kunci: Inventori; kitaran stok, Monte Carlo; permintaan masa utama; rantaian bekalan

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*Corresponding author; email: m.mahdavi@pin.iaun.ac.ir