Sains Malaysiana 44(3)(2015): 463–471

Peramalan Data Siri Masa Aliran Sungai di Dataran Banjir dengan Menggunakan

Pendekatan Kalut

(Predicting Time Series Data at Floodplain Area using Chaos Approach)

NUR HAMIZA ADENAN¹* & MOHD SALMI MD NOORANI²

¹Jabatan Matematik, Fakulti Sains dan Matematik, Universiti Pendidikan Sultan Idris

35900 Tanjong Malim, Perak Darul Ridzuan, Malaysia

²Pusat Pengajian Sains Matematik, Fakulti Sains dan Teknologi, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia, 43600 Bangi, Selangor Darul Ehsan, Malaysia

Received: 22 May 2014/Accepted: 18 August 2014

ABSTRAK

Bencana banjir boleh menjejaskan kehidupan dan harta benda. Risiko kejadian banjir boleh diminimumkan jika amaran awal dapat dikeluarkan. Di atas inisiatif ini, peramalan aliran sungai harian dijalankan di sebuah stesen aliran sungai di Sungai Muda, Malaysia yang terletak di dataran banjir. Peramalan dengan mengaplikasikan pendekatan kalut melibatkan dua langkah iaitu pembinaan semula ruang fasa dan peramalan. Pembinaan ruang fasa melibatkan satu pemboleh ubah iaitu data aliran sungai yang dibina semula kepada m-dimensi dengan menggunakan nilai optimum dimensi pembenaman daripada kaedah Cao dan variasi nilai dimensi pembenaman untuk pendekatan songsang. Hasil daripada pembinaan ruang fasa ini digunakan untuk meramal aliran sungai dengan menggunakan kaedah peramalan setempat. Hasil kajian menunjukkan data aliran Sungai Muda adalah bertelatah kalut berdasarkan analisis daripada kaedah Cao. Keseluruhan hasil peramalan bagi kedua-dua kaedah dapat memberikan peramalan yang baik berdasarkan pekali korelasi yang tinggi. Namun, kombinasi parameter asas bagi pendekatan songsang memberikan hasil peramalan yang lebih baik. Oleh itu, pendekatan songsang boleh dicadangkan bagi meramal data aliran sungai harian dengan tujuan memberikan maklumat penting mengenai sistem aliran sungai di dataran banjir terutamanya di Sungai Muda.

Kata kunci: Aliran sungai; dataran banjir; data siri masa; pendekatan kalut; peramalan

ABSTRACT

Floods are natural disaster that can cause substantial losses of lives and property. Flood risk can be minimized if an early warning can be issued. In this regard, daily river flow prediction was analyzed at a river flow station in Ladang Victoria, Malaysia which is located in a floodplain area. Prediction using chaotic approach that involves the reconstruction of phase space and prediction have been employed in this research. The reconstruction of phase space involves a single variable of river flow data to m-dimensional phase space in which the dimension (m) is based on the optimal values of method of Cao and the variation of m for inverse approach. The results from the reconstruction of phase space have been used in the prediction process using local linear approximation method. From our investigation, river flow at Muda River is chaotic based on the analysis from Cao method. Overall, prediction results for both methods can provide a good prediction based on a high correlation coefficient. However, the combination of the preliminary parameters for the inverse approach yields better prediction. Therefore, the inverse approach can be proposed for predicting daily river flow data for the purpose of providing important information about the flow of the river system in floodplain area especially in Sungai Muda.

Keywords: Chaos approach; floodplain area; prediction; river flow; time series data

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*Corresponding author; email: nurhamiza.adenan@gmail.com