Sains Malaysiana 46(10)(2017): 1735–1741

http://dx.doi.org/10.17576/jsm-2017-4610-09

 

Identifying the Monotonic Trend in Climate Change Parameter in Kluang and Senai, Johor, Malaysia

(Mengenal Pasti Tren Berekanada di dalam Parameter Perubahan Iklim di Kluang

dan Senai, Johor, Malaysia)

 

FIRDAUS MOHAMAD HAMZAH*, FARAHANI MOHD SAIMI & OTHMAN JAAFAR

 

Department of Civil and Structural Engineering, Faculty of Engineering and Build Environment, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia, 43600 UKM Bangi, Selangor Darul Ehsan, Malaysia

 

Received: 29 January 2017/Accepted: 29 August 2017

 

ABSTRACT

Presently, climate change plays an important role as it gives a serious impact to the living things on earth. Analyzing the trend of climate change is very important in identifying the pattern of changes because it can give an initial overview for future analysis. In this study, trend analysis was carried out to study the pattern of changes for five climate change parameters, such as total amount of monthly precipitation (mm), monthly average temperature (°C), monthly average global radiation (MJm^–2), monthly average wind speed (m/s) and monthly average humidity (%) during the period of 1974 to 2010. Comparisons were made between two research stations, which were the Senai International Airport and Kluang Meteorological Stations. In this study, the Mann-Kendall trend test and Sen’s slope estimator test were used to identify the monotonic trend for these climate change parameters. As a result of this analysis, the precipitations showed no trend for both locations and the radiation showed no trend in Kluang from both analyses. Meanwhile, other parameters in Senai and Kluang showed a monotonic trend, according to the Tau value (Z) and the Sen’s slope value. The temperature shows a positive trend for both locations.

 

Keywords: Climate change parameter; Mann-Kendall trend test; monotonic trend; non-parametric trend estimator; Sen’s slope estimator test

 

ABSTRAK

Perubahan iklim memainkan peranan yang penting pada masa kini berikutan kesan serius terhadap kehidupan di bumi. Analisis tren perubahan iklim amat penting dalam mengenal pasti perubahan coraknya kerana analisis ini dapat memberi gambaran awal dalam membuat analisis lanjutan. Dalam kajian ini, analisis tren dilakukan untuk melihat perubahan iklim bagi parameter perubahan iklim, iaitu jumlah jatuhan hujan bulanan (mm), purata suhu bulanan (°C), purata radiasi global bulanan (MJm^–2), purata kelajuan angin bulanan (m/s) serta purata kelembapan bulanan (%) sepanjang tempoh 1974 sehingga 2010. Perbandingan dibuat antara dua stesen kajian, iaitu stesen meteorologi Lapangan Terbang Antarabangsa Senai dan Stesen Meteorologi Kluang. Dalam kajian ini, ujian tren Mann-Kendall dan ujian anggaran kecerunan Sen digunakan bagi melihat tren parameter perubahan iklim. Keputusan daripada analisis ini menunjukkan tiada tren parameter hujan bagi kedua-dua kawasan dan radiasi juga tidak menunjukkan tren keputusan daripada kedua-dua analisis. Manakala parameter lain menunjukkan tren berekanada di Senai dan Kluang berdasarkan nilai Tau (Z) dan nilai kecerunan Sen. Tren positif ditunjukkan bagi suhu di kedua-dua kawasan.

 

Kata kunci: Anggaran tren tak berparameter; parameter perubahan iklim; tren berekanada; ujian anggaran kecerunan Sen; ujian tren Mann-Kendall

 

REFERENCES

Altin, T.B. & Barak, B. 2014. Changes and trends in total yearly precipitation of the Antalya district, Turkey. Procedia Social and Behavioral Sciences 120: 586-599.

Amirullah, H.A. 2011. Masalah banjir kilat di Kuala Lumpur: Keberkesanan kaedah pencegahan banjir. h t t p : / / w e b c a c h e . g o o g l e u s e r c o n t e n t . c o m / s e a r c h ? q = c a c h e : 8 7 I X K 6 1 M I 6 o J : w w w. e f k a . u t m . m y / t h e s i s / I M A G E S / 3 P S M / 2 0 1 0 / J K S - 3 / h a m i d a n u a r s x 0 6 0 2 1 7 a w j 0 4 d 1 0 t t t . p d f + & c d = + &cd=9&hl=en&ct=clnk&gl=my. Accessed on 23 May 2016.

Anghileri, D., Pianosi, F. & Soncini-Sessa, R. 2014. Trend detection in seasonal data: From hydrology to water resources. Journal of Hydrology 511: 171-179.

Apurv, T., Mehrotra, R., Sharma, A., Goyal, M.K. & Dutta, S. 2015. Impact of climate change on floods in the Brahmaputra basin using CMIP5 decadal predictions.  Journal of Hydrology 527: 281-291.

Araghi, A., Adamowski, J. & Rajabi, M. 2016. Detection of trends in days with thunderstorms in Iran over the past five decades. Atmospheric Research 172-173: 174-185.

Bachelet, D., Ferschweiler, K., Sheehan, T. & Strittholt, J. 2016. Climate change effects on southern California deserts. Journal of Arid Environments 127: 17-29.

Bihrat, O. & Mehmet, B. 2003. The power of statistical tests for trend detection. Journal of Engineering and Environmental Sciences 27: 247-251.

Ceppi, P., Scherrer, S.C., Fischer, A.M. & Appenzeller, C. 2012. Revisiting Swiss temperature trends 1959 - 2008. International Journal of Climatology 32(2): 203-213.

Chandler, R. & Scott, M. 2011. Statistical Methods for Trend Detection and Analysis in the Environmental Sciences. United Kingdom: John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Federal Department of Town and Country Planning Peninsular Malaysia. 2011. Pengurusan fizikal dan usaha mengelakkan banjir. http://www.townplan.gov.my/content.php?ID=200. Accessed on 1 July 2016.

Fonseca, D., Carvalho, M.J. & Rocha, A. 2016. Recent trends of extreme temperature indices for the Iberian Peninsula. Physics and Chemistry of the Earth 94: 66-76.

Gasim, M.B., Surif, S., Mokhtar, M., Toriman, M.E., Rahim, S.A. & Bee, C.H. 2010. Analisis banjir Disember 2006: Tumpuan di kawasan Bandar Segamat, Johor. Sains Malaysiana 39(3): 353-361.

Gocic, M. & Trajkovic, S. 2013. Analysis of changes in meteorological variables using Mann-Kendall and Sen’s slope estimator statistical tests in Serbia. Global and Planetary Change 100: 172-182.

Hashim, N.M. 2010. The impact of global warming trends on urban livability in Malaysia: An analysis. Malaysian Journal of Society and Space 6(2): 72-88.

Haskett, J.D., Pachepsky, Y.A. & Acock, B. 2000. Effect of climate and atmospheric change on soybean water stress: A study of Iowa. Ecological Modelling 135(2-3): 265-277.

Heim, R.R. 2015. An overview of weather and climate extremes - Products and trends. Weather and Climate Extremes 10(Part B): 1-9.

Ikhwanuddin, M.E.M., Amal, M.N.A., Shohaimi, S., Hasan, H.H. & Jamil, N.R. 2016. Environmental influences on fish assemblages of the upper Sungai Pelus, Kuala Kangsar, Perak, Malaysia. Sains Malaysiana 45(10): 1487-1495.

Jamaludin, S., Mohd Deni, S., Wan Zin, W.Z. & Jemain, A.A. 2010. Trends in Peninsular Malaysia rainfall data during the southwest monsoon and northeast monsoon seasons: 1975 - 2004. Sains Malaysiana 39(4): 533-542.

Jarvis, A., Lane, A. & Hijmans, R.J. 2008. The effect of climate change on crop wild relatives. Agriculture, Ecosystems & Environment 126(1-2): 13-23.

Jiang, Y., Luo, Y., Zhao, Z. & Tao, S. 2010. Changes in wind speed over China during 1956 - 2004. Theoretical and Applied Climatology 99: 421-430.

Karmeshu, N. 2012. Trend detection in annual temperature & precipitation using the Mann Kendall test - A case study to assess climate change on select states in the Northeastern United States. Master of Environmental Studies Capstone Projects. 47. University of Pennysylvania (Unpublished).

Kendall, M. 1975. Rank Correlation Methods. London: Charles Griffin.

Liu, D.L. & Scott, B.J. 2001. Estimation of solar radiation in Australia from rainfall and temperature observations. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 106(1): 41-59.

Malaysian Meteorological Department. 2017. http://www.met. gov.my. Accessed on 11 May 2017.

Malaysian Meteorological Department. 2014. http://www.met. gov.my. Accessed on 6 May 2014.

Mann, H.B. 1945. Nonparametric tests against trend. Econometrica 13: 245-259.

Mezdour, A. & Probst, A. 2016. Contrasted spatial and long-term trends in precipitation chemistry and deposition fl uxes at rural stations in France. Atmospheric Environment 146: 28-43.

Mondal, A., Kundu, S. & Mukhopadhyay, A. 2012. Rainfall trend analysis by Mann-Kendall test: A case study of North- Eastern part of Cuttack District, Orissa. International Journal of Geology, Earth and Environmental Sciences 2(1): 70-78.

Motiee, H. & McBean, E. 2009. An assessment of long-term trends in hydrologic components and implications for water levels in Lake Superior. Hydrology Research 40(6): 564-579.

Mozejko, J. 2012. Detecting and estimating trends of water quality parameters. Water Quality Monitoring and Assessment, edited by Dr. Voudouris. InTech. www.intechopen.com/books/ water-quality-monitoring-and-assessment/detecting-and-estimating-trends-of-water-quality-parameters.

Onyutha, C., Tabari, H., Taye, M.T., Nyandwaro, G.N. & Willems, P. 2015. Analyses of rainfall trends in the Nile River Basin. Journal of Hydro-Environment Research 13: 36-51.

Pin, K.F., Pereira, J.J. & Aziz, S. 2013. Platforms of climate change: An evolutionary perspective and lessons for Malaysia. Sains Malaysiana 42(8): 1027-1040.

Pingale, S.M., Khare, D., Jat, M.K. & Adamowski, J. 2014. Spatial and temporal trends of mean and extreme rainfall and temperature for the 33 urban centers of the arid and semi-arid state of Rajasthan, India. Atmospheric Research 138: 73-90.

Rianna, G., Zollo, A., Tommasi, P., Paciucci, M., Comegna, L. & Mercogliano, P. 2014. Evaluation of the effects of climate changes on landslide activity of Orvieto clayey slope. Procedia Earth and Planetary Science 9: 54-63.

Rosmann, T., Domínguez, E. & Chavarro, J. 2016. Comparing trends in hydrometeorological average and extreme data sets around the world at different time scales. Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies 5: 200-212.

Satari, S.Z., Zubairi, Y., Hassan, S. & Hussin, A. 2015. Some statistical characteristic of malaysian wind direction recorded at maximum wind speed : 1999-2008. Sains Malaysiana 44(10): 1999-2008.

Sen, P.K. 1968. Estimates of the regression coefficient based on Kendall’s Tau. Journal of the American Statistical Association 63(324): 1379-1389.

Shaaban, A.J. 2013. Impact of Climate Change on Malaysia. Bangi: Institut Penyelidikan Hidraulik Kebangsaan Malaysia.

Shibuya, T. & Croxford, B. 2016. The effect of climate change on office building energy consumption in Japan. Energy and Buildings 117: 1-11.

Sinar Harian. 2013. Malaysia dilanda “cuaca panas.” Kuala Lumpur. http://www.sinarharian.com.my/malaysia-dilanda-cuaca-panas-1.172790. Accessed on 13 July 2015.

Singh, P., Kumar, V., Thomas, T. & Arora, M. 2008. Changes in rainfall and relative humidity in river basins in northwest and central India. Hydrological Processes 2992: 2982-2992.

Soon, T. & Ransangan, J. 2016. Effects of environmental conditions and nutrients on the occurrence and distribution of potentially harmful phytoplankton in Mesotrophic water. Sains Malaysiana 45(6): 865-877.

Tabari, H., Marofi, S., Aeini, A., Talaee, P.H. & Mohammadi, K. 2011. Trend analysis of reference evapotranspiration in the western half of Iran. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 151(2): 128-136.

Tao, H., Gemmer, M., Bai, Y., Su, B. & Mao, W. 2011. Trends of streamflow in the Tarim River Basin during the past 50 years: Human impact or climate change ? Journal of Hydrology 400(1-2): 1-9.

The Star. 2006. Typoon Utor to blame. Cyberjaya. http://www. thestar.com.my/story/?file=%2F2006%2F12%2F21%2Fnati on%2F16380186. Accessed on 24 August 2016.

Tian, Q., Prange, M. & Merkel, U. 2016. Precipitation and temperature changes in the major Chinese river basins during 1957 - 2013 and links to sea surface temperature. Journal of Hydrology 536: 208-221.

Trabea, A.A. & Shaltout, M.A.M. 2000. Correlation of global solar radiation with meteorological parameters over Egypt. Renewable Energy 21: 297-308.

Vo, N.D., Gourbesville, P., Vu, M.T., Raghavan, S.V. & Liong, S.Y. 2015. A deterministic hydrological approach to estimate climate change impact on river flow: Vu Gia-Thu Bon catchment, Vietnam. Journal of Hydro-environment Research 11: 59-74.

Willett, K.M., Gillett, N.P., Jones, P.D. & Thorne, P.W. 2007. Attribution of observed surface humidity changes to human influence. Nature 449: 710-712.

Yue, S. & Pilon, P. 2004. A comparison of the power of the t test, Mann-Kendall and bootstrap tests for trend detection. Hydrological Sciences 49: 21-38.

Yue, S., Pilon, P. & Cavadias, G. 2002. Power of the Mann- Kendall and Spearman’s rho tests for detecting monotonic trends in hydrological series. Journal of Hydrology 259: 254-271.

Yunling, H. & Yiping, Z. 2005. Climate change from 1960 to 2000 in the Lancang River Valley, China. Mountain Research and Development 25(4): 341-348.

Zhao, J., Huang, Q., Chang, J., Liu, D., Huang, S. & Shi, X. 2015. Analysis of temporal and spatial trends of hydro-climatic variables in the Wei River Basin. Environmental Research 139: 55-64.

 

*Corresponding author; email: fir@ukm.edu.my