Sains Malaysiana 48(7)(2019): 1367–1381

http://dx.doi.org/10.17576/jsm-2019-4807-06

Aplikasi Sistem Maklumat Geografi (GIS) dan Analisis Diskriminan dalam Pemodelan Kejadian Kegagalan Cerun di Pulau Pinang, Malaysia

(Application of Geographical Information Systems (GIS) and Discriminant Analysis in Modelling Slope Failure Incidence in Pulau Pinang, Malaysia)

NURIAH ABD MAJID¹* & RUSLAN RAINIS²

¹Institut Alam Sekitar dan Pembangunan (LESTARI), Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia, 43600 UKM Bangi, Selangor Darul Ehsan, Malaysia

²Bahagian Geografi, Pusat Pengajian Ilmu Kemanusiaan, Universiti Sains Malaysia, 11800 USM Penang, Pulau Pinang, Malaysia

Diserahkan: 28 September 2018/Diterima: 22 April 2019

ABSTRAK

Kegagalan cerun merupakan suatu fenomena disebabkan hujan yang sering berlaku di kawasan tropika seperti Malaysia. Kertas ini menghuraikan penggunaan Sistem Maklumat Geografi (GIS) dan Analisis Diskriminan untuk memodelkan ciri-ciri fizikal kegagalan cerun serta hubung kait statistik kejadian kegagalan cerun dengan parameter fizikal yang menyumbang kepada kejadian kegagalan cerun di Pulau Pinang. Analisis diskriminan adalah satu kaedah analisis yang boleh digunakan untuk mendiskriminasikan sesuatu kumpulan kegagalan cerun berdasarkan parameter tertentu. Tujuan utama analisis ini dijalankan adalah bagi memahami faktor yang mempengaruhi perbezaan antara kumpulan kegagalan cerun dan cerun stabil (tiada kegagalan cerun), seterusnya membuat ramalan tentang kemungkinan terjadi sesuatu kegagalan cerun. Oleh yang demikian, satu kombinasi linear pemboleh ubah bebas telah dibentuk dan digunakan sebagai asas dalam mengkelaskan kes kegagalan cerun tertentu. Kajian ini menggunakan sepuluh pemboleh ubah iaitu jarak ke jalan, purata hujan tahunan, litologi batuan, ketinggian topografi, kecuraman cerun, siri tanih, aspek cerun, jarak ke sungai, jenis guna tanah dan lineamen. Model yang terhasil didapati berjaya meramal 92.5% daripada kejadian kegagalan cerun sebenar. Model yang dibentuk kemudiannya telah dinilai menggunakan 30% daripada sampel kejadian sebenar dan menghasilkan ketepatan sebanyak 91.24%.

Kata kunci: Analisis diskriminan; kegagalan cerun; pemodelan ruangan; Pulau Pinang; Sistem Maklumat Geografi

ABSTRACT

Slope failure is a phenomenon due to frequent rainfall that occurs in tropical areas such as Malaysia. This paper describes the use of Geographical Information Systems (GIS) and Discriminant Analysis to model the physical features of slope failure and the statistical association between slope failure events with physical parameters that contribute to the incidence of slope failure in Pulau Pinang. Discriminant analysis is an analysis method that can be used to discriminate against a set of slope failures based on certain criteria. The main purpose of this analysis were to understand the factors that affect the difference between the group of slope failure and subsequently making predictions about a possible slope failure. Therefore, a linear combination of independent variables has been formed and used as a basis for classifying certain slope failure cases. The study used ten variables: distance to the road, average annual rainfall, lithology, topography height, slope gradient, soil series, slope aspect, distance to river, landuse type and lineament. The resulting model was able to predict 92.5% of actual slope failure events. The model was validated using 30% of the actual incident samples and found 91.24% accuracy.

Keywords: Discriminant analysis; Geographical Information System; Pulau Pinang; slope failure; spatial modeling

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*Pengarang untuk surat-menyurat; email: nuriah@ukm.edu.my