Sains Malaysiana 49(10)(2020): 2587-2597

http://dx.doi.org/10.17576/jsm-2020-4910-24

Temperature Effect on HFMD Transmission in Selangor, Malaysia

(Kesan Suhu kepada Penularan HFMD di Selangor, Malaysia)

NURMARNI ATHIRAH ABDUL WAHID¹, JAMALUDIN SUHAILA^1,2* & AYUNA SULEKAN¹

¹Department of Mathematical Sciences, Faculty of Science, Universiti Teknologi Malaysia, 81310 Johor Bahru, Johor Darul Takzim, Malaysia

²UTM Centre of Industrial and Applied Mathematics (UTM-CIAM), Universiti Teknologi Malaysia, 81310 Johor Bahru, Johor Darul Takzim, Malaysia

Diserahkan: 28 November 2019/Diterima: 16 April 2020

ABSTRACT

Hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) has become a major concern for health authorities all over the world including Malaysia. In Malaysia, it has been reported that more than fifteen thousand people were affected by this disease in the year 2016 and it is suspected that climate variables play an important role in the incidence of HFMD. Previous studies showed that HFMD disease is associated with climatic factors such as temperature, humidity, and rainfall. Hence, this paper attempts to examine the pattern of HFMD and scrutinize the effect of temperature on HFMD in Selangor from the year 2010 to 2016. Correlation analysis is conducted to measure the relationship between HFMD incidence and temperature with a lag time effect. The generalized linear model (GLM) is then carried out to determine the influence of climate variables on HFMD disease in Selangor. Our findings discovered that the weekly mean temperature is significantly associated with HFMD incidence in Selangor. A comparison between models shows that HFMD with 2 weeks lag time mean temperature is the best-fitted model of HFMD in Selangor. This result helps to lay sound evidence for the implementation of strategies to reduce the effect of climate change especially temperature towards HFMD.

Keywords: Climate change; disease; generalized linear model; HFMD; temperature

ABSTRAK

Penyakit tangan, kaki dan mulut (HFMD) telah menjadi kebimbangan utama bagi pihak berkuasa kesihatan di seluruh dunia termasuk Malaysia. Di Malaysia, lebih daripada lima belas ribu orang telah dilaporkan terjejas kerana dijangkiti oleh penyakit ini pada tahun 2016 dan disyaki bahawa perubahan iklim memainkan peranan yang penting terhadap penyakit HFMD. Kajian terdahulu menunjukkan bahawa penyakit HFMD dikaitkan dengan faktor iklim seperti suhu, kelembapan dan hujan. Oleh itu, kertas ini bertujuan untuk mengkaji corak HFMD dan mengenal pasti kesan suhu terhadap penyakit HFMD di negeri Selangor bermula dari tahun 2010 sehingga 2016. Analisis korelasi dilakukan terlebih dahulu untuk mengukur hubungan antara penyakit HFMD dan suhu yang dipengaruhi oleh kesan sela masa. Model linear teritlak kemudian dilakukan untuk menentukan pengaruh perubahan iklim terhadap penyakit HFMD di Selangor. Hasil kajian kami melalui perbandingan antara model menunjukkan bahawa penyakit HFMD dengan sela masa suhu sebanyak dua minggu merupakan model yang terbaik bagi HFMD di Selangor. Hasil daripada kajian ini dapat membantu bagi pelaksanaan strategi untuk mengurangkan kesan perubahan iklim seperti suhu terhadap penyakit HFMD.

Kata kunci: HFMD; model linear teritlak; penyakit; perubahan iklim; suhu

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*Pengarang untuk surat-menyurat; email: suhailasj@utm.my