Sains Malaysiana 50(8)(2021): 2469-2478

http://doi.org/10.17576/jsm-2021-5008-27

Situational Analysis for COVID-19: Estimating Transmission Dynamics in Malaysia using an SIR-Type Model with Neural Network Approach

(Analisis Keadaan untuk COVID-19: Penganggaran Dinamik Penularan di Malaysia menggunakan Model Jenis SIR dengan Pendekatan Rangkaian Neuron)

MOHAMMAD SUBHI JAMILUDDIN¹, MOHD HAFIZ MOHD¹*, NOOR ATINAH AHMAD¹ & KAMARUL IMRAN MUSA²

¹School of Mathematical Sciences, Universiti Sains Malaysia, 11800 USM Penang, Pulau Pinang, Malaysia

²School of Medical Sciences, Health Campus, Universiti Sains Malaysia, 16150 Kubang Kerian, Kelantan Darul Naim, Malaysia

Diserahkan: 30 Januari 2021/Diterima: 24 Jun 2021

Abstract

COVID-19 is a major health threat across the globe, which causes severe acute respiratory syndrome, and it is highly contagious with significant morbidity and mortality. In this paper, we examine the feasibility and implications of several phases of Movement Control Order (MCO) and some non-pharmaceutical intervention (NPI) strategies implemented by Malaysian government in the year 2020 using a mathematical model with SIR-neural network approaches. It is observed that this model is able to mimic the trend of infection trajectories of COVID-19 pandemic and, Malaysia had succeeded to flatten the infection curve at the end of the Conditional MCO (CMCO) period. However, the signs of ‘flattening’ with R₀ of less than one had been taken as a signal to ease up on some restrictions enforced before. Though the government has made compulsory the use of face masks in public places to control the spread of COVID-19, we observe a contrasting finding from our model with regards to the impacts of wearing mask policies in Malaysia on R₀ and the infection curve. Additionally, other events such as the Sabah State Election at the end of third quarter of 2020 has also imposed a dramatic COVID-19 burden on the society and the healthcare systems.

Keywords: Basic reproduction number; neural network; non-pharmaceutical intervention; SIR Model

ABSTRAK

COVID-19 adalah ancaman kesihatan utama di seluruh dunia dan penyakit ini boleh menyebabkan sindrom pernafasan akut yang teruk. Ia sangat mudah berjangkit dan telah mengakibatkan kadar kematian yang signifikan. Dalam makalah ini, kami mengkaji kebolehlaksanaan dan implikasi beberapa fasa Perintah Kawalan Pergerakan (PKP) dan strategi campur tangan bukan farmasi (NPI) yang dilaksanakan oleh kerajaan Malaysia pada tahun 2020 dengan menggunakan model matematik melalui pendekatan SIR-rangkaian neuron. Kami mendapati bahawa model ini dapat memimik trend trajektori jangkitan pandemik COVID-19 dan Malaysia telah berjaya melandaikan lengkung jangkitan di akhir tempoh PKP Bersyarat (PKPB). Namun, tanda ‘landaian’ ini dengan R₀ kurang daripada satu telah diambil sebagai isyarat untuk melonggarkan beberapa sekatan yang dijalankan sebelum ini. Walaupun kerajaan telah mewajibkan penggunaan topeng muka di tempat-tempat awam untuk mengawal penyebaran COVID-19, kami memerhatikan hasil yang kontras daripada model kami berkenaan dengan kesan penggunaan topeng muka di Malaysia terhadap nilai R₀ dan juga terhadap lengkung jangkitan. Selain itu, peristiwa lain seperti Pilihan Raya Negeri Sabah pada akhir suku ketiga 2020 juga telah menyebabkan bebanan COVID-19 terhadap masyarakat dan sistem kesihatan negara.

Kata kunci: Asas nombor pembiakan; campur tangan bukan farmasi; Model SIR; rangkaian neuron

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*Pengarang untuk surat-menyurat; email: mohdhafizmohd@usm.my