Abstract
The main objective of the paper is to present a cointegration approach
to ascertain whether there exists a long run relationship between palm
oil price and soybean oil price. A related objective is to investigate
causality patterns between the two price series using the Granger causality
test. The study establish that the time series on palm oil and soybean
oil prices are cointegrated even though separately, each time series is
non-stationary. This suggests there exists a long run time series is non-stationary.
This suggests there exists a long run equilibrium relationship between
the two variables. Bidirectional causality is established at the 5 per
cent level of significance for the causality is established at the 5 per
cent level of significance for the F-test, however, at the 1 per cent level
of significance, a unidirectional causality from soybean oil price to palm
oil price is established.
Abstrak
Kajian ini menggunakan pendekatan kointegrasi untuk menentukan sama
ada wujud hubungan jangka panjang antara harga minyak sawit dan kacang
soya. Ia juga mengenal pasti arah 'causality' antara kedua siri harga tersebut
dengan menggunakan Ujian Gragner Causality. Kajian mendapati wujud kointegrasi
antara harga minyak sawit dan kacang soya walaupun secara berasingan kedua
siri tersebut adalah tidak pegun. Ini mencadangkan terdapat hubungan keseimbangan
bagi kedua siri harga tersebut dalam jangka panjang. Dwi arah 'causality'
didapati pada aras keyakinan 5 peratus. Walau bagaimanapun, pada aras keyakinan
yang lebih tinggi (satu peratus), hanya satu arah 'causality' daripada
minyak kacang - minyak sawit telah ditemui.