Abstrak
Ramai penyelidik terdahulu telah cuba untuk membuktikan perhubungan
antara volum dagangan, pulangan saham dan kadar faedah. Pengetahuan mengenai
perhubungan antara ketiga-tiga pembolehubah ini penting kepada para pelabur
kerana dengan adanya maklumat ini mudahlah para pelabur mengatur strategi
pelaburan mereka jika berlakunya perubahan ke atas salah satu daripada
ketiga-tiga pembolehubah tersebut. Di dalam kajian ini, hubungan tidak
simetri antara pulangan saham dan volum dagangan diselidiki dan pengaruh
kadar faedah terhadap volum dagangan juga diuji keberertiannya dengan mengambilkira
keadaan ekonomi yang berbeza. Hasil yang diperolehi membuktikan bahawa
hubungan tidak simetri memang wujud antara volum dagangan dan pulangan
saham, di mana pulangan positif akan memberikan kesan yang lebih besar
ke atas volum dagangan berbanding dengan kesan negatif (pada magnitud pulangan
yang sama). Di samping itu, kadar faedah didapati signifikan dalam mempengaruhi
volum dagangan. Walau bagaimanapun, arah hubungan yang wujud berbeza bergantung
kepada keadaan ekonomi sebelum dan selepas kejatuhan pasaran.
Abstract
Many researchers have tried to prove the relationship between volume,
stock return and interest rates. Knowledge regarding the relationship between
these three variables are important for investors, since the information
obtained would guide them in their investment strategies whenever there
are changes in these variables. In this study, the asymmetrical relationship
between stock return and volume was examined and the influence of interest
rates on volume was investigated. The results obtained proved the existence
of the asymmetrical relationship between volume and stock return, in which
positive returns had more effect on volume compared to negative returns.
In addition, volume was also found to be significantly influenced by interest
rates, while the direction of the relationship would depend on the economic
situation, i.e before and after economic downturn.