Abstrak
Tujuan utama kajian ini ialah untuk menganalisis keberkesanan dasar
kawalan modal terpilih Malaysia ke atas kesan integrasi dan kemasukan pengaruh
luar ke pasaran ekuiti di Malaysia. Kajian empirik dijalankan dalam dua
masa berbeza iaitu sebelum dasar kawalan modal (Januari 1995 hingga Mei
1997) dan selepas dasar kawalan modal (Januari 1995 hingga Mei 1997) dan
selepas dasar kawalan modal (September 1998 hingga Disember 1999). Kajian
empirik telah dijalankan menggunakan kaedah Vektor Autogregresif (VAR)
merangkumi kointegrasi multivariate Johansen-Juselius, Model Vektor Pembetulan-Ralat
(VECM), dan Fungsi Tindak Balas (IRFs). Kaedah ekonometrik ini mampu untuk
mengesan kemasukan pengaruh asing ke pasaran saham domestik melalui terma
pembetulan ralat (ECT), jika perlu. Keputusan kajian menunjukkan bahawa
selepas dasar kawalan modal integrasi antara pasaran ekuiti masih dikekalkan
dengan tindakbalas yang lebih meliar.
Abstract
The main purpose of this paper is to analyze the impact of Malaysian
selective capital control policy on the international transmission of stock
price movement and international market integration. Empirical study was
done on two different time regimes, i.e. before capital control (January
1995 until May 1997) and after capital control (September 1998 until December
1999). Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model including Johansen-Juselius multivariate
cointegration test, vector error-correction model (VECM), and impulse response
functions (IRFs) were utilised. The above econometric methods together
with ECTs are capable of detecting the impact of external forces on domestic
stock markets. The results showed that after the capital control policy
was imposed, the integration between equity markets is still maintained
with a greater and wilder responses.