Sains Malaysiana 44(10)(2015): 1389–1396

Prediction of Lead Seven Day Minimum and Maximum Surface Air Temperature using Neural Network and Genetic Programming

(Peramalan Awalan Tujuh Hari Minimum dan Suhu Permukaan Udara Maksimum menggunakan Rangkaian Neuron dan Pengaturcaraan Genetik)

K. RAMESH¹*, R. ANITHA² & P. RAMALAKSHMI¹

¹Department of Computer Applications, Regional Centre, Anna University, Tirunelveli,

Tamil Nadu 627007, India

²Muthayammal Engineering College, Rasipuram, Namakkal District, Tamil Nadu

India

Received: 15 October 2013/Accepted: 4 August 2015

ABSTRACT

The determination of variance of surface air temperature is very essential since it has a direct impact on vegetation, environment and human livelihood. Forecast of surface air temperature is difficult because of the complex physical phenomenon and the random-like behavior of atmospheric system which influences the temperature event on the earth surface. In this study, forecast models based on artificial neural network (ANN) and genetic programming (GP) approaches were proposed to predict lead seven days minimum and maximum surface air temperature using the weather parameters observed at the station Chennai, India. The outcome of this study stated that models formulated using ANN approach are more accurate than genetic programming for all seven days with the highest coefficient of determination (R2), least mean absolute error (MAE), root mean square error (RMSE) and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) on deployment with independent test dataset. ANN models give statistically acceptable mean absolute error of 0.59oC for lead day one in minimum temperature forecast and 0.86oC variance for lead day one in maximum temperature forecast. The study also clarified that the level of accuracy of the proposed prediction models were found to be better for smaller lead days when compared with higher lead days with both approaches.

Keywords: ANN; GP; surface temperature; temperature forecast

ABSTRAK

Penentuan perbezaan suhu permukaan udara adalah sangat penting kerana ia mempunyai kesan langsung pada tumbuh-tumbuhan, alam sekitar dan kehidupan manusia. Ramalan suhu permukaan udara adalah sukar kerana fenomena fizikal yang kompleks dan perilaku rawak seperti sistem atmosfera yang mempengaruhi keadaan suhu permukaan bumi. Dalam kajian ini, peramalan model berdasarkan pendekatan rangkaian neuron tiruan (ANN) dan genetik pengaturcaraan (GP) dicadangkan untuk meramalkan awalan tujuh hari minimum serta suhu permukaan udara maksimum menggunakan parameter cuaca yang dicerap di Stesen Chennai, India. Hasil kajian ini menunjukkan bahawa model yang dirumus menggunakan pendekatan ANN adalah lebih tepat daripada genetik pengaturcaraan untuk semua tujuh hari dengan pekali penentuan tertinggi (R2), min ralat mutlak terkecil (MAE), punca min ralat kuasa dua (RMSE) dan bermakna min ralat peratusan mutlak (MAPE) pada pengerahan dengan dataset ujian bebas. Model ANN memberikan min ralat mutlak 0.59oC yang boleh diterima secara statistik untuk awalan satu hari dalam suhu peramalan minimum dan 0.86oC varians bagi satu hari dalam suhu peramalan maksimum. Kajian ini juga menjelaskan tahap ketepatan model ramalan yang dicadangkan adalah lebih baik untuk awalan hari lebih kecil jika dibandingkan dengan awalan hari lebih besar dengan kedua-dua pendekatan.

Kata kunci: ANN; GP; peramalan suhu; suhu permukaan

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*Corresponding author; email: rameshk7n@yahoo.co.in