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Sains Malaysiana 46(10)(2017):
1997–2005 http://dx.doi.org/10.17576/jsm-2017-4610-39
Incorporating Intelligence into Exit Choice Model for Typical Evacuation (Penggabungan Kecerdasan
kepada Model Pilihan
Keluar untuk Pemindahan
Tipikal) MOHAMMED
SHUAIB1*
& ZARITA ZAINUDDIN2 1College of Shari’a
and Islamic Studies in Al Ahsaa, Department
of Computer Sciences, Al-Imam Muhammad Ibn Saud Islamic University
(IMSIU), AlAhsaa 31982, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia 2School of Mathematical Sciences,
Universiti Sains Malaysia, 11800
USM,
Penang, Pulau Pinang, Malaysia Received:
30 August 2016/Accepted: 13 February 2017 ABSTRACT Integrating an exit
choice model into a microscopic crowd dynamics model is an essential
approach for obtaining more efficient evacuation model. We describe
various aspects of decision-making capability of an existing
rule-based exit choice model for evacuation processes. In simulations,
however, the simulated evacuees clogging at exits have behaved
non-intelligently, namely they do not give up their exits for
better ones for safer egress. We refine the model to endow the
individuals with the ability to leave their exits due to dynamic
changes by modifying the model of their excitement resulted
from the source of panic. This facilitates the approximately
equal crowd size at exits for being until the end of the evacuation
process, and thereby the model accomplishes more optimal evacuation.
For further intelligence, we introduce the prediction factor
that enables higher probability of equally distributing evacuees
at exits. A simulation to validate the contribution is performed,
and the results are analyzed and compared with the original
model. Keywords: Decision making;
evacuation; exit choice; prediction ABSTRAK Mengintegrasikan model pilihan keluar
kepada model dinamik
mikroskopik ramai adalah pendekatan penting untuk mendapatkan
model pemindahan yang lebih
cekap. Kami
menerangkan pelbagai
aspek keupayaan membuat keputusan bagi model pilihan keluar berasaskan peraturan sedia ada untuk proses pemindahan. Namun, dalam simulasi,
mangsa yang dipindahkan
tersangkut di pintu keluar telah bertindak
tidak bijak,
iaitu mereka tetap
dengan jalan
keluar mereka tanpa
mendapatkan jalan
keluar yang lebih selamat. Kami memperbaiki
model untuk memberikan
individu keupayaan untuk keluar disebabkan
oleh perubahan
dinamik dengan mengubah model keterujaan mereka yang dihasilkan daripada sumber panik. Ini memudahkan orang ramai di pintu keluar sehingga
proses pemindahan berakhir
dan dengan demikian
model itu dapat
melakukan pemindahan lebih optimum. Untuk kecerdasan lanjut,
kami memperkenalkan faktor
ramalan yang membolehkan kebarangkalian yang lebih tinggi untuk sama-sama
mengagihkan mangsa
di pintu keluar. Satu simulasi untuk pengesahan sumbangan dijalankan dan keputusan dianalisis dan dibandingkan dengan model asal. Kata kunci: Membuat
keputusan; pemindahan;
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