Sains Malaysiana 48(7)(2019): 1333–1345

http://dx.doi.org/10.17576/jsm-2019-4807-03

Drivers of Land Use-Land Cover Changes in the Central Rift Valley of Ethiopia

(Pemacu Kegunaan Tanah - Perubahan Liputan Tanah di Lembah Rekahan Tengah Ethiopia)

BELEW BEKELE^1,2, WEI WU^1,3* & ESHETU YIRSAW⁴

¹College of Land Management, Nanjing Agricultural University, Nanjing 210095, China

²Department of Natural Resources Management, Assosa Agricultural TVET College, Assosa 242, Ethiopia

³National and Joint Local Engineering, Research Center for Rural Land Resources Use and Consolidation, Nanjing 210095, China

⁴Department of Natural Resources Management, College of Agriculture and Natural Resources, Dilla University, Dilla 419, Ethiopia

Received: 6 December 2018/Accepted: 3 April 2019

ABSTRACT

Land use-land cover change (LULCC) is driven by the interplay of forcing factors that act at global, regional, and local levels. Previous studies investigated mainly the basic socioeconomic drivers of LULCC. However, these studies less considered climate change vulnerability as a potential driver. Hence, this study is aimed to assess LULCC drivers in more fragile and dynamic landscapes of the East African Rift Valley region for the period of 1986-2016. We used a combination of Remote Sensing, Geographic Information System, logistic regression, and descriptive statistics to quantify and analyze the data. Image analysis results indicated that during the overall study period (1986-2016), grass/grazing land, agricultural land, and bare land have increased by 124%, 42%, and 34% respectively, whereas scattered acacia woodland, bush/shrubland, and swampy/marshy land have declined by 52%, 50%, and 31%, in that order. This image-derived change trend is in line with farmers’ perceived results. The top most influential drivers of LULCC includes population growth (95%), fuelwood extraction (93%), agricultural land expansion (92%), charcoal making (92%), climate change/recurrent drought (79%), and overgrazing (71%) in descending order of percentage of respondents. Education level and age of farmers significantly (p<0.05) affected their perception towards less perceived drivers. Hence, in order to reduce the adverse socio-environmental impacts of spectacular LULCC in the region, policy and decision makers need to take into account such principal drivers, particularly population growth and climate change.

Keywords: Central Rift Valley; driver; Ethiopia; land use-land cover change; perception

ABSTRAK

Kegunaan tanah-perubahan litupan tanah (LULCC) didorong oleh interaksi faktor paksaan yang bertindak pada peringkat global, serantau dan tempatan. Kajian sebelum ini hanya mengkaji asas pacuan sosio-ekonomi LULCC. Walau bagaimanapun, kajian tersebut tidak menganggap kerentanan perubahan iklim sebagai pemacu berpotensi. Oleh itu, kajian ini bertujuan untuk menilai pemacu LULCC pada landskap yang lebih rapuh dan dinamik di rantau Lembah Rekahan Afrika Timur bagi tempoh 1986-2016. Kami menggunakan gabungan teknologi pengesanan jarak jauh, sistem maklumat geografi, regresi logistik dan statistik diskriptif untuk menentu dan menganalisis data. Keputusan imej analisis menunjukkan bahawa semasa tempoh kajian keseluruhan (1986-2016), rumput/ragut tanah, tanah pertanian dan tanah lapang telah meningkat masing-masing sebanyak 124%, 42% dan 34% manakala hutan kayu akasia, belukar/tanah semak dan tanah paya/rawang berselerak telah menurun sebanyak 52%, 50% dan 31%. Trend perubahan berasaskan imej ini adalah sejajar dengan keputusan yang dijangka oleh peladang. Pemacu LULCC paling berpengaruh termasuklah pertumbuhan populasi (95%), penyaringan kayu api (93%), pembesaran tanah pertanian (92%), pembuatan arang (92%), perubahan iklim/kemarau berulang (79%) dan ragutan melampau (71%) mengikut peratusan responden. Tahap pendidikan dan umur petani mempengaruhi persepsi mereka dengan ketara (p<0.05) terhadap pemacu yang kurang diamati. Oleh itu, untuk mengurangkan impak sosial alam sekitar LULCC pada rantau ini, dasar dan pembuat keputusan perlu mengambil kira pemacu utama tersebut, terutamanya pertumbuhan populasi dan perubahan iklim.

Kata kunci: Ethiopia; lembah rekahan tengah; pemacu; persepsi; perubahan kegunaan tanah-liputan tanah

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*Corresponding author; email: ww@njau.edu.cn