Sains Malaysiana 48(4)(2019): 909–920

http://dx.doi.org/10.17576/jsm-2019-4804-24

 

Model Sistem Dinamik untuk Meramalkan Bilangan Pesakit dan Keperluan Sumber Tenaga di Zon Kuning Jabatan Kecemasan

(A System Dynamics Model to Predict the Number of Patients and Resources Required in Emergency Department's Yellow Zone)

 

NAZHATUL SAHIMA MOHD YUSOFF¹, CHOONG-YEUN LIONG²*, ABU YAZID MD NOH³, WAN ROSMANIRA ISMAIL² & NORAZURA AHMAD⁴

 

¹Faculty of Computer Sciences & Mathematics, Universiti Teknologi MARA (UiTM), Cawangan Kelantan, 18500 Machang, Kelantan Darul Naim, Malaysia

 

²Statistics Program, Faculty of Science and Technology, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia, 43600 UKM Bangi, Selangor Darul Ehsan, Malaysia

 

³Emergency Department, Hospital Universiti Sains Malaysia (HUSM), Jalan Raja Perempuan Zainab 2, 16150 Kota Bharu, Kelantan Darul Naim, Malaysia

 

⁴School of Quantitative Sciences, CAS Universiti Utara Malaysia, 06010 Sintok, Kedah Darul Aman, Malaysia

 

Received: 15 May 2018/Accepted: 8 February 2019

 

ABSTRAK

Jabatan Kecemasan Hospital Universiti Sains Malaysia (JKHUSM) telah menunjukkan perubahan yang pesat dan menghadapi transformasi drastik berhubung dengan kepentingan dalam sistem penjagaan kesihatan. Peramalan dan perancangan sumber yang munasabah perlu dilakukan bagi memenuhi permintaan pesakit yang kian bertambah. Justeru, kajian ini memfokuskan kepada Zon Kuning di JKHUSM yang memerlukan perancangan sewajarnya atas keperluan sumber yang sepatutnya disediakan pada masa kini dan akan datang untuk membantu pihak pengurusan dalam perancangan strategik jabatan serta menambah baik aliran pesakit dan perkhidmatan di zon tersebut. Pemodelan Sistem Dinamik telah dibangunkan untuk meramalkan bilangan pesakit yang akan berkunjung serta jumlah sumber yang diperlukan untuk memenuhi permintaan perkhidmatan di Zon Kuning JKHUSM pada masa sekarang (2014) dan masa hadapan bagi tempoh lima (2019) dan sepuluh tahun akan datang (2024). Hasil kajian meramalkan sumber yang diperlukan bagi memenuhi permintaan pesakit yang berkunjung di Zon Kuning pada masa sekarang adalah seramai 11 orang doktor, 12 orang jururawat dan 18 buah katil berbanding dengan sembilan orang doktor, sembilan orang jururawat dan 16 buah katil sedia ada. Seterusnya penambahan dua buah katil diramalkan untuk memenuhi keperluan pesakit bagi tempoh lima dan sepuluh tahun akan datang. Manakala tiada penambahan doktor dan jururawat diperlukan bagi memenuhi permintaan pesakit bagi tempoh lima tahun akan datang. Namun begitu dijangkakan penambahan seorang doktor dan seorang jururawat diperlukan bagi memenuhi permintaan 10 tahun akan datang. Oleh itu, peramalan penambahan sumber ini adalah sangat penting untuk menambah baik aliran pesakit di Zon Kuning JKHUSM serta membantu dalam mencapai Penunjuk Prestasi Utama jabatan ini. Hasil kajian yang diperoleh akan membantu pihak pengurusan membuat keputusan yang wajar dengan belanjawan yang telah ditetapkan demi meningkatkan kualiti perkhidmatan yang ditawarkan di samping meningkatkan tahap prestasi Zon Kuning JKHUSM.

 

Kata kunci: Jabatan kecemasan; penunjuk prestasi utama; peramalan; sistem dinamik; sumber tenaga; zon kuning

 

ABSTRACT

Emergency Department of Hospital Universiti Sains Malaysia (EDHUSM) has shown rapid changes and is facing a drastic transformation in relation to the importance of the healthcare system. Reasonable resource forecasting and planning should be done to meet the growing demands of patients. Hence, this study is focusing on the Yellow Zone in JKHUSM which requires proper planning on the needs of the resources that should be available now and in the future to assist the management in the department’s strategic planning as well as to improve the patients flow and services in the zone. Systems Dynamics modeling is used to forecast the number of patients that will visit, and predict the resources required to match the demand and supply in the Yellow Zone at present (2014) and in the future for the next five (2019) and ten years (2024). The results showed that 11 doctors, 12 nurses and 18 beds are needed compared to nine doctors, nine nurses and 16 beds to cater for patients visiting the Yellow Zone at present. Furthermore, an addition of two beds is predicted to meet the patient's needs over the next five and ten years. Meanwhile, no additional doctors and nurses are required to meet the patient's demand for the next five years. However, the addition of a doctor and a nurse is needed to meet the next 10 years' demand. Therefore, forecasting of these resources is crucial to improve the patients flow in the Yellow Zone of EDHUSM and to assist in achieving the Key Performance Indicator of the department. The results of the study will help the management to make the right decision within their stipulated budget to improve the quality of services rendered and further enhance the performance of EDHUSM's Yellow Zone.

 

Keywords: Emergency department; forecasting; key performance indicator; resources; system dynamics; yellow zone

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*Corresponding author; email: lg@ukm.edu.my